The grain markets continue to trade sideways for the most part the past few weeks even with the harvest pressure starting. The harvest in the US has been sluggish as some crops are ready and others need some time to mature yet; especially corn. Yields have been reported at better than expected in many areas on both corn and soybeans and this has also kept a damper on prices increasing.
The Sept 29th USDA quarterly stocks report did not give us anything in particular to make the markets move one way or the other either. They did lower US corn carryout a little bit and had Sept 1st corn stocks at 2.295 Billion Bushels and Sept 1st soybean stocks were lowered by 25 million bushels also.
Carryout stocks on soybeans are now expected to be around 300 million bushels. Barge freight has been a market mover the past few weeks with low water levels on the Mississippi and other demand factors making barge freight trade at near record highs. This has put tremendous pressure on nearby basis levels at the river markets. Dubuque Iowa was trading at -$1.00 basis for soybeans this past week. Luckily some rain and improved barge availability has lowered freight a bit over the past few days which should improve those numbers some. Either way basis values look to be under pressure for both corn and soybeans early this harvest season. Patience is probably warranted as there are big carries in the market place right now.
Wisconsin is off to a decent start on soybean harvest. As of October 1st the USDA had the crop at 16% harvested. In South Central/ South Eastern Wisconsin I would estimate the harvest at about 35% completed. Yields around this area have been reported at 45-65 bushels per acre with 55-60 the most common.
Oct 12th USDA crop report is the next report that might dictate price movement if they update the yields. Many private forecasters will be coming out with their numbers in the next week. It seems like the yield estimates are getting larger instead of smaller from these groups. USDA had corn at 169.9 and soybeans at 49.9 last month.